Usdchf rises 0.33% amid signs of US economic contraction in May 2025

USDCHF Analysis

Performance after Tuesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Tuesday	0.33%	26.5 Pips
Week to-date	0.82%	66.2 Pips
June	-0.59%	-48.6 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Wed 07:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Economic Projections
Wed 07:00 PM USD Interest Rate Projections
Thu 08:30 AM CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision (Policy Rate)

What happened lately

In the United States, various sectors have shown signs of economic contraction in May 2025. The U.S. industrial production fell to -0.2% whereas it rectified at 0% in the previous month of April. Retail trade also showed a significant decline as the monthly retail trade sharpened to -0.9% from a revised -0.1%, with the control group making a slight increase to 0.4% from its earlier revised figure of -0.1%. Notably, excluding automobiles, retail trade saw a decrease to -0.3%. Furthermore, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index experienced a drop to -16 points in June from -9.2 points in May. These statistics demonstrate a downturn in both consumer spending and manufacturing which are critical components of economic health.

The recent economic data hints toward a more cautious outlook for the USDCHF currency pair. A weaker U.S. economy might lead to a decreased demand for the dollar, thereby exerting downward pressure on the USD. The U.S. has upcoming high-impact economic events, including the Federal Interest Rate decision and FOMC Economic Projections. These could introduce volatility in the forex market, contingent on how the Federal Reserve reacts to the current economic conditions. In the absence of positive economic surprises, the USD might struggle to maintain its current levels course except for interventions or higher interest rate projections, which could offer some support. On the Swiss front, the SNB interest rate decision will also play a significant role. Any deviation in expected policy could impact CHF adversely or favorably, influencing the USDCHF pair accordingly. As of now, given the economic data, the overall sentiment might weigh slightly against the dollar against the Swiss franc.

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What can we expect from USDCHF today?

USDCHF on Tuesday rose 0.33% to 0.81582. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Tuesday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 0.81798 with break above could target R2 at 0.82014 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 0.81200 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.81715 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out: