Eurusd sees slight dip amid mixed economic signals ahead of Fed decision

EURUSD Analysis

Performance after Tuesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Tuesday	-0.09%	-11 Pips
Week to-date	-0.15%	-17 Pips
December	0.26%	30 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Wed 07:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
Wed 07:00 PM USD Interest Rate Projections

What happened lately

In October 2025, the United States saw an increase in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) to 7.67 million from 7.227 million in the previous month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise indicates a strengthening job market, suggesting more opportunities for employment, which reflects on the overall robustness of the U.S. economy. This uptick in job openings could imply an increased demand for labor, potentially leading to higher wages as businesses compete to attract workers, which in turn could stimulate consumer spending.

Germany recorded a notable improvement in its trade balance for October 2025, with a seasonally adjusted increase to 16.9 billion euros from 15.3 billion euros in September, as reported by Destatis. This enhancement represents stronger export activity compared to imports, which can be beneficial for Germany’s economic position. Furthermore, Germany’s industrial production figures were positive, showing an increase to 0.8% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis in October, recovering from a decline of 1% in September. Adjusted for workdays, industrial production rose to 1.8%, suggesting a robust manufacturing sector. These developments indicate a recovering and growing industrial capability in the largest economy within the Eurozone.

The Eurozone’s sentix Economic Index demonstrated an improvement, moving up to -6.2 points in December 2025 from -7.4 in November, according to sentix GmbH. This change, although still negative, marks a positive shift in the economic sentiment across the Eurozone, suggesting that investors and businesses hold a slightly more optimistic view of the region’s economic prospects moving forward.

The EUR/USD currency pair saw a slight decline of 0.09%, settling at 1.16250. The consolidation observed could be attributed to mixed economic signals from both regions. The recent improvements in Germany’s trade balance and industrial production, alongside a slight lift in Eurozone sentiment, provide supportive factors for the euro. However, the strengthening U.S. job market indicated by the increase in JOLTS may exert downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. With the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and interest rate projections posing the potential for significant market volatility, traders may be in a holding pattern, awaiting further guidance. Any hawkish cues from the Federal Reserve could strengthen the dollar further, potentially applying additional pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

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What can we expect from EURUSD today?

EURUSD on Tuesday dropped -0.09% to 1.16250. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.1607 (S1).

Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.16570 or trades above daily pivot 1.1632. Break above could target R1 at 1.165. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.1607 (S1) and daily low of 1.16140 as support levels. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 1.16140 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out: