| 📊 Economic Data Release | |||
| Event | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
| Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims | 215 | 211 | 210 |
| PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (1-mth) | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth) | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (3-mth) | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Durable Goods – New Orders | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense | 8.1 | — | -0.3 |
| Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| GDP annual rate | 1.6 | 2 | 2 |
| GDP Price Index (Quarterly) | 3.5 | — | 3.6 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft | -1.1 | 0.4 | 3.9 |
| PCE Price Index (1-mth) | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| PCE Price Index (12-mth) | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
| PCE Price (3-mth) | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Personal Income (1-mth) | 0 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Consumer Spending (PCE) | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
| EURUSD Price Reaction | |||
| Price before | 1.16240 | ||
| Price after | 1.16320 | ||
| Change | ▲ +8.0 pips | +0.0688% | |
| 30-min range | 11.0 pips | ||
The latest economic data indicates varied performance across key U.S. economic indicators as of April 2026. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims have ticked up to 215,000, slightly above both the consensus and previous figures, signaling a marginal deterioration in the labor market. Meanwhile, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, excluding food and energy, increased modestly by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, which remains in line with the annual consensus but shows a slight slowdown in monthly inflation pressures. The three-month Core PCE rose to an annualized rate of 4.4%, slightly exceeding expectations.
Durable Goods Orders surged by 7.9%, with orders excluding defense skyrocketing by 8.1% and those excluding transportation matching expectations with a 1.1% rise. These robust increases point to stronger-than-expected manufacturing activity. However, orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, fell by 1.1%, undershooting expectations and previous performance, potentially signaling weakness in business investment. The GDP annual rate for the first quarter was 1.6%, below the consensus estimate of 2%, indicating slower overall economic growth. Similarly, the GDP Price Index showed a mild decline to 3.5% from 3.6%.
Personal Income data was flat at 0%, falling short of the 0.4% consensus growth, while Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) increased by the expected 0.5%, though less robust than the prior month. Monthly overall PCE Price Index growth slowed to 0.4%, aligning with decelerating inflationary pressures, though annually this rate remained stable at 3.8%. The trends across these indicators suggest a mixed economic outlook, with strong manufacturing offset by weak business investment and slowing personal income growth.
The EUR/USD currency pair could face downward pressure in response to this economic data. The combination of rising durable goods orders and moderate inflation could fuel market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance, supporting a stronger U.S. dollar. Simultaneously, the slower-than-expected GDP growth might ignite concerns about the broader economic outlook. However, the decisive performance of the manufacturing sector and stable inflation figures provide ground for dollar strength, potentially causing the EUR/USD pair to decline as investors adjust their expectations in favor of the dollar over the euro.
📈 EURUSD Price Reaction — 30-Minute Chart