GBPUSD Analysis
| Performance after Wednesday | |||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum |
| Wednesday | -1.01% | -135.0 Pips | ▼ |
| Week to-date | -0.86% | -115.0 Pips | ▼ |
| June | -1.25% | -168.0 Pips | ▼ |
Upcoming key events (GMT+8)
| Time (GMT+8) | Currency | Impact | Event |
| Thu 02:00 PM | GBP | HIGH | Labour Force Survey Employment Change |
| Thu 07:00 PM | GBP | HIGH | Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (Bank Rate) |
| Fri 01:00 PM | USD | NONE | Juneteenth Freedom Day |
| Fri 02:00 PM | GBP | HIGH | Retail Sales Volumes (1-mth) |
What happened lately
On Wednesday, the GBPUSD currency pair experienced a decline of 1.01%, closing at 1.32910 after reaching a high of 1.34350 and a low of 1.32590. This movement followed the release of key economic data from both the UK and the US.
In the UK, the Core CPI Inflation Rate for the 12 months leading up to June 2026 was reported at 2.6%, slightly below the consensus estimate of 2.7% but above the previous rate of 2.5%. This data, released at 14:00 GMT+8, indicated a moderate rise in inflation, which may have influenced market expectations regarding future monetary policy.
Later in the day, at 20:30 GMT+8, the US released its Monthly Retail Trade figures for May 2026, showing a 0.9% increase. This was higher than both the consensus forecast and the previous month’s figure, both of which stood at 0.5%. The stronger-than-expected retail sales data likely provided support for the US dollar, contributing to the decline in GBPUSD.
Looking ahead, several high-impact economic events are scheduled that could further influence the GBPUSD pair. On Thursday, the UK will release its Labour Force Survey Employment Change at 14:00 GMT+8, followed by the Bank of England’s Interest Rate Decision at 19:00 GMT+8. Additionally, on Friday, the UK will report its Retail Sales Volumes for May 2026 at 14:00 GMT+8.
Overall, the market sentiment appears to be influenced by the recent economic data releases, with stronger US retail sales supporting the dollar and contributing to the downward pressure on GBPUSD. Traders will likely focus on the upcoming UK economic events for further direction.
What can we expect from GBPUSD today?
The GBPUSD pair closed at 1.32910 on Wednesday, marking a 1.01% decline for the day. The overall daily and weekly outlook remains bearish, with the price trading below the 9-day EMA.
📈 Bull Scenario A bullish scenario for GBPUSD could be triggered if the pair manages to break above the daily pivot point at 1.33283. If buying pressure continues, traders should watch for resistance at R1, located at 1.33977, and further gains could target R2 at 1.35043. The rising stochastic indicator may support upward momentum. | 📉 Bear Scenario On the downside, a bearish continuation could occur if GBPUSD falls below the first support level at 1.32217. Further selling pressure might push the pair towards the second support level at 1.31523. The overall bearish daily and weekly outlook supports the possibility of continued declines. |
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.35737 |
| R2 | 1.35043 |
| R1 | 1.33977 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.33283 |
| S1 | 1.32217 |
| S2 | 1.31523 |
| S3 | 1.30457 |