| 📊 Economic Data Release | |||
| Event | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
| Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims | 197 | 200 | 188 |
| PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (1-mth) | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth) | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (3-mth) | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| GDP annual rate | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| GDP Price Index (Quarterly) | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| PCE Price Index (1-mth) | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.5 |
| PCE Price Index (12-mth) | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.1 |
| PCE Price (3-mth) | 5.1 | — | 4.6 |
| Personal Income (1-mth) | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Consumer Spending (PCE) | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| EURUSD Price Reaction | |||
| Price before | 1.14760 | ||
| Price after | 1.14780 | ||
| Change | ▲ +2.0 pips | +0.0174% | |
| 30-min range | 11.0 pips | ||
The U.S. economic data released on July 30, 2026, presented a mixed picture. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims slightly rose to 197 from a previous 188, surpassing consensus expectations of 200. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, excluding food and energy, revealed a month-over-month growth of 0.1% in June 2026, which is down from the previous 0.3%. Over the year, this index showed a decrease to 3.3% from 3.4%, aligning with expectations. Furthermore, the 3-month annualized rate for the PCE Index dropped to 3.4% from 4.4% previously. Meanwhile, the overall PCE Price Index showed a month-over-month decline of 0.1%. Despite the minor monthly deceleration, the year-over-year figure stood at 3.7%, consistent with anticipations, though down from 4.1% previously.
The GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was revised down to 1.5%, noticeably below the consensus of 2.1% and the preceding quarter’s rate. Conversely, the GDP Price Index posted a substantial quarterly increase to 6.3%, markedly above both the consensus of 3.6% and the prior reading. Personal income demonstrated sluggish growth with a 0.2% increase, underperforming compared to forecasted 0.3% and a previous 0.7% rise. Consumer spending, observed as a reliable economic indicator, kept steady with a 0.3% increase, aligning with expectations but decelerating from the earlier 0.9% gain.
Regarding the EURUSD exchange rate, this data release could suggest mixed implications. The lower-than-expected GDP growth, coupled with decelerating PCE core inflation, pressures the U.S. dollar as it might suggest that the Federal Reserve has limited room for aggressive interest rate hikes. The rising GDP Price Index could indicate still-persistent inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy roadmap. Consequently, these conflicting signals might render the dollar more volatile, potentially allowing the euro to appreciate in relative stability or policy forward guidance. The response of the EURUSD may rest on forthcoming data or statements from key monetary authorities such as the European Central Bank that could further influence traders’ risk assessments.
📈 EURUSD Price Reaction — 30-Minute Chart