| 📊 Economic Data Release | |||
| Event | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
| Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3-mth) | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| Average Earnings including Bonus (3-mth) | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.4 |
| Claimant Count Change | -11 | 11.2 | 6.7 |
| Claimant Count Rate | 4.3 | — | 4.4 |
| Labour Force Survey Employment Change | 83 | — | 147 |
| ILO Unemployment Rate (3-mth) | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| GBPUSD Price Reaction | |||
| Price before | 1.35350 | ||
| Price after | 1.35270 | ||
| Change | ▼ -8.0 pips | -0.0591% | |
| 30-min range | 22.0 pips | ||
The latest economic data from the Office for National Statistics indicates mixed signals for the UK labor market. Average Earnings excluding Bonuses rose slightly to 3.5% during the three-month period ending in June 2026, surpassing expectations and demonstrating marginal wage growth from the previous figure of 3.4%. However, Average Earnings including Bonuses decreased to 4.1%, aligning with expectations but marking a decline from the previous 4.4%. This suggests that while base wages are modestly improving, the overall compensation environment, including bonuses, is weakening.
The Claimant Count Change for July 2026 showed a significant decrease by 11, a reversal from the increase of 6.7 in the previous month. The Claimant Count Rate also fell slightly to 4.3%. These numbers suggest a reduction in the number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits, potentially hinting at improving job market conditions. However, the Labour Force Survey Employment Change revealed a decrease to 83 from the previous 147, indicating a slower pace in employment growth.
The ILO Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.9% for the three-month period ending in June 2026, in line with the previous quarter and slightly above the consensus forecast of 4.8%. This stagnation suggests that while conditions in some sectors may be improving, overall labor market recovery remains sluggish.
Regarding GBPUSD, the mixed nature of the data could result in limited immediate impact on the currency pair. On one hand, rising wages excluding bonuses could have a positive effect on the British pound by potentially boosting consumer spending and thus the economy. On the other hand, the dip in wages including bonuses and the disappointing employment change suggest weaknesses that could weigh on investor confidence. Given that the unemployment rate has not improved as expected, market participants may remain cautious. Overall, these labor market figures could lead to a neutral stance on the British pound against the US dollar ahead of upcoming key events, such as the UK Consumer Prices Index and US Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes, which are likely to have a more pronounced influence on the GBPUSD movements.
📈 GBPUSD Price Reaction — 30-Minute Chart