Nzdusd experiences decline amid mixed us economic indicators

NZDUSD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	-1.06%	-63 Pips
Week to-date	-2.03%	-122 Pips
July	-3.33%	-203 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened lately

The United States economy shows a mix of signals with recent economic indicators. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 4.5%, maintaining the previous rate as expected. The real estate market displays a downturn as pending home sales have decreased by 0.8% in June compared to the 1.8% growth in May. Consumer spending seems to be slowing, with the PCE excluding food and energy prices dropping from 3.5% to 2.5%, and the PCE Price’s 3-month annualized estimate declining from 3.7% to 2.1% in the second quarter. Despite these inflation indicators showing a slow-down, the GDP annual rate surprisingly increased to 3% from -0.5%, showcasing an unexpected economic expansion in Q2. The GDP Price Index, however, significantly decreased to 2% from 3.8%. Labor market conditions appear to be tightening with job openings slipping to 7.437 million in June from 7.712 million, reflecting cautious hiring trends. House prices, although still in negative territory, showed a slight improvement from -0.3% to -0.2% in May 2025.

The shifts in these U.S. economic metrics are likely to impact the NZDUSD exchange rate. As inflationary pressures abate, with core PCE and GDP Price Index figures dropping, alongside declining home sales and job openings, there’s a perception of a softening economic environment. This could prompt caution among investors, often favoring more stable currencies. Additionally, the drop in NZDUSD reflects this sentiment. With upcoming events such as the USD PCE Price Index and Nonfarm Payroll Employment set to release shortly, the NZDUSD could witness further volatility. If these events underscore weak inflation and job market numbers, the USD could weaken, potentially offering some support to the NZD. Conversely, strong figures could exert downward pressure on the NZDUSD, highlighting the U.S. economy’s comparative strength.

Latest from X (Twitter)

Tweets by Stats NZ

What can we expect from NZDUSD today?

NZDUSD on Wednesday dropped -1.06% to 0.58920. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Wednesday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 0.58623 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 0.58327. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 0.59710 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 0.58870 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is bearish as the pair posted lower by -2.03%.

Key levels to watch out: